A Look at the Future of the Box Office from comScore’s Paul Dergarabedian

During our Upfront event last week, Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for comScore, took to the stage to give the audience an insider’s view of the strength of today’s box office and the future of the movie theater business:

“At ComScore, we precisely measure audiences, brands, and consumer behavior everywhere.  And with our exclusive PreAct movie tracking service, we are able to measure social sentiment in real time, predicting the health of a movie’s marketing campaign in advance of its release.”

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“2016 is off to a blistering start with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Deadpool, Zootopia,and more recently Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, The Jungle Bookand Captain America: Civil War pushing year to date box office revenue up nearly 8% vs. last year. That brings us to our focus here today, the future of the movie theater business. And that future is very bright indeed!”

“The line-up of films on tap for the fourth quarter of 2016 through the third quarter of 2017, according to comScore’s PreAct service,is already resonating on social media and creating excitement among potential audiences.In the fourth quarter, we have Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story to name just three, and in 2017, Fifty Shades Darker and Fast 8 are just two of the titles expected to draw massive and enthusiastic crowds to the multiplex.”

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“And just who is this receptive audience that will be showing up in movie theaters across the nation? That’s a key question because despite the fact that many analysts have postulated that the all-important Millennial audience is staying home or is glued to their small screen devices, our PostTrak audience survey data shows quite the contrary. To wit, 48% of the audience during the record box office year of 2015 was in fact the 18-to-34-year-olds that make up this all important demographic segment.”

“So, what movies are they looking forward to? Doctor Strange is the newest character from the Marvel Cinematic Universe to be introduced on the big screen. This highly-anticipated film is set to hit theaters this holiday season and the social chatter is driving it to the top of our PreAct rankings.”

“Now, I’d be remiss not to tell you about one of the most anticipated films of 2016, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. It’s not a surprise that this movie has a near perfect PreAct score of 99, on par with the biggest North American box office performer ever, Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Rogue One is as much of a guaranteed hit as you can get.”

“I’m happy to say that the overall growth in Millennial movie-going is not an anomaly, it’s a long-term trend, and one that shows no signs of slowing down. Movie-going remains a viable and integral part of today’s entertainment diet  while at the same time serving the very human desire to enjoy the communal and immersive experience of the movie theater itself. A great movie plus a memorable in-theater experience indeed equals long-term success!”

 

Posted in Insights

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